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Fossil Demand Forecasting Challenge

$5 000 USD
Completed (over 3 years ago)
Forecast
1009 joined
200 active
Starti
May 24, 22
Closei
Aug 28, 22
Reveali
Aug 28, 22
A simple 192xxx benchmark
Notebooks Ā· 23 Jul 2022, 13:07 Ā· 2

Hello !

Here is (another) starter with some (quick) theoretical justification explaining the score improvement, hope you will find it useful !

https://www.thekerneltrip.com/statistics/l1-baseline-fossil-stock-forecasting-challenge/

The code is at the bottom of the article

Discussion 2 answers

Nice article! Thanks for sharing! Could you explain better this part?

"All the models relying on the minimization of least squares (usual regressions, random forests with default parameters) are likely to perform poorly since they will return the mean over subsambles, while minimizing the absolute error returns the mean of the sample."

Why MAE represents mean of the sample and MSE the mean of subsamples? And why in the equation and code you used the median?

25 Jul 2022, 19:50
Upvotes 1
User avatar
ashioyajotham

Great work pal

28 Aug 2022, 15:21
Upvotes 0