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Absa Corporate Client Activity Forecasting Challenge

Helping South Africa
$5 000 USD
Completed (~3 years ago)
Forecast
150 joined
46 active
Starti
Nov 01, 22
Closei
Nov 27, 22
Reveali
Nov 27, 22
incorrect data...?
Data Ā· 2 Nov 2022, 12:28 Ā· 10

correct me if i'm wrong.

although the decription explains data as following

'The training set is the first six weeks of data, and the seventh and final week will be the test set,'

however test data set only includes 1 day '2021-03-24'. also training includes 7 weeks.

what's the reason behind this situation?

also another question.

why does test dataset only include time point hour '00', '06', '12', '18'?

what happens if test users take actions 05:00:00?

also, where can I find evaluation methods?

Discussion 10 answers

sorry I am a complete beginner.

any replies are appreciated.

2 Nov 2022, 12:29
Upvotes 0
User avatar
ZINDI

Hello, the text has been updated. Thank you for the good catch!

There are 4 200 customers, across five countries over a period of seven weeks. The training set is the first 7 weeks of data, and the last day and final week will be the test set, where the target is whether a client performed event 14 during that day at 6-hour intervals.

The evaluation metric for this challenge is F1.

I hope this clears up the confusion and good luck!

User avatar
SbusisoPhakathi

Thanks so much

i see, thanks for your reply.

ok, so our time-series prediction models will be evaluated on activities happened in only '1 DAY'

hmmm,

any reasons why you chose this evaluation strategy?

In my understanding, evaluation period should be more than at least 7 days...

by the way,

what does 'the last day and final week will be the test set' mean...?

are you going to add extra 1 week to current test file?

User avatar
Amy_Bray
Zindi

the last day *of the final week

User avatar
skaak
Ferra Solutions

Hmmmmm, this changes the competition completely. Until before this explanation, we had to predict the transactions, now we have to predict if a given transaction took place.

@zindi so the submission file target column, is that now a 0 or 1 based on if this specific transaction took place?

User avatar
Amy_Bray
Zindi

Correct. For example, you need to say if user 1 performed event 14 at least once between midnight and 6 am, then from 6 am to noon, noon to 6 pm, and 6 pm to midnight.

It is possible they performed event 14, 20 times between 6 am and noon, but you will only submit a 1 for that period as they completed event 14 at least once.

Regarding only forecasting 1 day... the data is severely imbalanced and forecasting with only 7 weeks of data and few features didn't seem as feasible. The solution can hopefully be extrapolated if needed and interesting approaches garnered.

User avatar
skaak
Ferra Solutions

Thanks amy - well, if you wanted to up the ante, you did just that.

Reminds me of the story of the princess who demanded her prince pick a flower from the highest mountain. Next to impossible ... but he was so noble and committed he attempted it anyhow, even if it cost him his life.

Tell ABSA we are noble and committed to this impossible task, but perhaps not to the point of death.