The confidence column reflects how certain the farmer is about their rainfall prediction (i.e., the subjective probability they attach to their answer). The predicted_intensity column captures the farmer’s forecast of the rainfall amount, categorized as no rain, small rain, medium rain, or heavy rain.

In other words, each farmer provides both a categorical prediction of rainfall intensity and an associated confidence level. Importantly, these are the farmer’s own predictions made before the ground-truth observation, and the target variable provides the actual measured rainfall outcome.