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agriBORA Commodity Price Forecasting Challenge

Helping Kenya
€8 250 EUR
20 days left
Data analysis
GIS
Time-series
Forecasting
Nowcasting
578 joined
188 active
Starti
Nov 14, 25
Closei
Dec 27, 25
Reveali
Jan 13, 26
About

The data consists of historical wholesale and retail prices of maize at different markets in Kenya from 2021 - 2025. The first dataset is from KAMIS. It consists of historical prices for three types of maize (white, yellow and mixed-traditional). You can pull extra data from the KAMIS website to complement the sample that is provided. The second dataset, collected by agriBORA, is the transaction data between businesses showing the wholesale price of white maize for a given week.

Using historical prices of dry maize in Kenya, your task is to develop a machine learning solution to predict average weekly prices of maize in the counties of Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Mombasa, Nairobi and Uasin-Gishu. agriBORA data is the data that needs to be forecasted, however, KAMIS data is provided if you would like to supplement the agriBORA data. At each prediction step, your model should generate forecasts for two consecutive weeks. The forecasting period spans six consecutive weeks, from November 17, 2025 to January 10, 2026.

You are encouraged to explore and incorporate any external data you believe may improve your solution - precipitation, vegetation indices (NDVI), or other relevant data could provide useful signals. Part of the challenge is discovering which features truly help predict prices. Any additional dataset used must be open-source, and must be shared in the chat in order for us to consider your winning submission.

If you choose to use additional data sources, please submit the following:

  • Scripts for downloading or pulling the data
  • The raw data itself
  • Any processing scripts you applied
  • The processed data used as input to your model

This ensures your solution is fully reproducible and allows others to understand and build upon your approach.

Files
Description
Files
agriBORA's maize prices for weeks 46-48 of year 2025
Historical prices of maize at different market in Kenya from 2021 - 2025/07.
Transaction data between businesses showing the weekly white maize prices from 2023/10 - 2025/10.
Raw historical prices of maize at different market in Kenya from 2021 - 2025/07.
This is a starter notebook to help you make your first submission.
Is an example of what your submission file should look like. The order of the rows does not matter, but the names of the "ID" must be correct.