RMB Monthly Mini Challenge #1: Nowcast April
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Mar 21, 23
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May 01, 23
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May 24, 23
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Platform · 24 May 2023, 08:15 · 11
While we wait, CPI was just released. statssa.gov.za
You can use the below to calculate your score so long. These are the actual values (unless I made a typo somewhere)
ID Value
April_food and non-alcoholic beverages 117.4
April_alcoholic beverages and tobacco 110.2
April_clothing and footwear 103.7
April_housing and utilities 104.6
April_household contents and services 107.7
April_health 109.6
April_transport 113.1
April_communication 99.8
April_recreation and culture 104.9
April_education 110.4
April_restaurants and hotels 108.6
April_miscellaneous goods and services 109.3
April_headline CPI 109.4
Easiest - just use spreadsheet, paste these in next to yours and calculate RMSE, anybody want to dare to post their results so long?
Thanks for your contribution! Seems like my RMSE is around 0.55. I'm quite happy with the result as I've put very little effort and did not spent much time on it to achieve it. I will try to improve my score in the next months, good luck everyone!
Nice, thanks. Yes I had a real fancy model that I worked on a bit and it got 0.6. Then a simple, test model with just a few moving averages and it got much better 0.46! CPI been volatile recently, and will probably continue in next few months, so this competition has an element of .... ahhhh .... let's say *luck* to it.
Well my best model was competing with yours, It has rmse: 0.4547
Congrats, I would say you are luckier, but, @Koleshjr knowing your reputation, that would not be accurate!
fwiw I won a bet on CPI today, at least I have headline spot on, so the loser must take a swim over here (in winter :-) phew I'm glad its not me.
Thanks @skaak :). And thanks everyone for your efforts. We have sent Zindi the scoring file so hopefully we get the updated leaderboard soon!
Thanks! For reference, would be real nice to see RMB score as well.
Sure. I think our score is 0.4. Will double check though.
Wow! Thanks, I really appreciate you sharing. That is a pretty good score, but more impressively, is your willingness to share it! This helps a lot as you can gauge your own model against that of the host, so I often ask this question, but really seldom get a reply.
The private leaderboard is revealed! Well done all!
Thanks Amy, that was quick ... you saw my bet ... there are two more mini's to go ... perhaps, if I win one of them, you can go for a swim in CT water this time of the year :-)