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SFC PAYGo Solar Credit Repayment Competition

Helping Africa
$5 000 USD
Completed (over 4 years ago)
Prediction
1060 joined
275 active
Starti
Jun 06, 21
Closei
Aug 29, 21
Reveali
Aug 29, 21
User avatar
ff
University of Yaoundé I
502
Data · 28 Aug 2021, 14:08 · 21

Where does the guy with the 502 come from ?

😂😂

Discussion 21 answers

LOL!!

I believe he saved the best model for the last day. Maybe we should just go home and await his winning solution tomorrow.

LOL!!

28 Aug 2021, 14:50
Upvotes 0
User avatar
MICADEE
LAHASCOM

😄😄😆😆😆😆

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MICADEE
LAHASCOM

@ff LOOOLLZZZ... He's from Federal Republic of Nigeria. 😃😃😃😃. What happened.? Why you ask?

User avatar
ff
University of Yaoundé I

Because of his score. LOL

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MICADEE
LAHASCOM

Loooolz.... That's super amazing score.

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wuuthraad

Dude's a legend if he wins the competition

29 Aug 2021, 06:09
Upvotes 0
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ff
University of Yaoundé I

I swear! 😆

User avatar
skaak
Ferra Solutions

I *think* I have a vague idea how he did it. Gonna give it one last attempt today and hope I can finish it in time.

I *think*, at least a little bit of it, comes from what you see below, which is the distro of the payments.

           < 355.32    177.66    211665     33.79%   33.79% ************
    355.32 - 710.64    532.98    123579     19.73%   53.52% *******
    710.64 - 1066.0    888.30    111411     17.79%   71.31% ******
    1066.0 - 1421.3    1243.6     99576     15.90%   87.20% *****
    1421.3 - 1776.6    1598.9     58618      9.36%   96.56% ***
    1776.6 - 2131.9    1954.3      9949      1.59%   98.15% 
    2131.9 - 2487.2    2309.6      4508      0.72%   98.87% 
    2487.2 - 2842.6    2664.9      3449      0.55%   99.42% 
    2842.6 - 3197.9    3020.2      1926      0.31%   99.73% 
    3197.9 - 3553.2    3375.6       630      0.10%   99.83% 
    3553.2 - 3908.5    3730.9       236      0.04%   99.87% 
    3908.5 - 4263.9    4086.2       266      0.04%   99.91% 
    4263.9 - 4619.2    4441.5        98      0.02%   99.92% 
    4619.2 - 4974.5    4796.8        84      0.01%   99.94% 
    4974.5 - 5329.8    5152.2       113      0.02%   99.96% 
    5329.8 - 5685.1    5507.5        52      0.01%   99.96% 
    5685.1 - 6040.5    5862.8        68      0.01%   99.98% 
    6040.5 - 6395.8    6218.1        29      0.00%   99.98% 
    6395.8 - 6751.1    6573.4        15      0.00%   99.98% 
    6751.1 - 7106.4    6928.8        23      0.00%   99.99% 
    7106.4 - 7461.7    7284.1        14      0.00%   99.99% 
    7461.7 - 7817.1    7639.4        10      0.00%   99.99% 
    7817.1 - 8172.4    7994.7        22      0.00%   99.99% 
    8172.4 - 8527.7    8350.1         5      0.00%   99.99% 
    8527.7 - 8883.0    8705.4         9      0.00%  100.00% 
    8883.0 - 9238.4    9060.7         9      0.00%  100.00% 
    9238.4 - 9593.7    9416.0         7      0.00%  100.00% 
    9593.7 - 9949.0    9771.3        12      0.00%  100.00% 
          >= 9949.0    10127.         1      0.00%  100.00% 
29 Aug 2021, 07:54
Upvotes 0
User avatar
wuuthraad

Did it work? or are you still working on it?. I tried to structure my payments like you did above but it did not work... maybe I'm missing something.

User avatar
skaak
Ferra Solutions

Still busy

My take is that I think you need to chop some outliers at least but it did not improve as much as I hoped or nearly as much as my validation sample showed.

Actually, I think I have a bug somewhere - with hours to go!!!!!! - as my validation stats are great but my submissions keep getting wrose ....

Don't worry, we will see a big surprise in the leaderboard, some competitors have discovered something!!

User avatar
wuuthraad

Thanks for the advise I dealt with the outliers using PCA my score improved(unfortunately it wasn't the silver bullet). I'm having the same issue my CV scores are decent but LB score is terrible... I've been using pipelines to avoid data leakage but still the same issue. Hopefully you finish in time dude!!

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wuuthraad

Haha maybe

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skaak
Ferra Solutions

Thanks!

Yeah - almost there. No longer using RF as it simply takes too long now.

But model is done so I am just toying with some hypers and optimising and wishing I had a faster machine and fending off a by now irrate other half.

I was hoping to find the silver bullet somewhere between outliers and also adding a lot more dummies. Same story - local score is now below 400 but on LB above 700.

Few days ago I could get 680 or so on LB with a simpler and somewhat broken model. Maybe I've lost something somewhere by fixing it up but to some extent I am satisfied. Model is done, pipeline working well and relatively bug-free. Only remaining issue is LB score!

User avatar
skaak
Ferra Solutions

You could also try simply chopping off a few outliers from the sample?

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ff
University of Yaoundé I

Hi @skaak,

Please how do you manage to find the 4, 5 and 6 column?

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skaak
Ferra Solutions

?

You mean that table?

The software draws then when I select histogram

User avatar
skaak
Ferra Solutions

Hmmmm - you were right, quite a few surprises. How can it be? Overfit the LB?

User avatar
ff
University of Yaoundé I

Okay thanks! I will try it !

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underfitting
Church of christ

Who scored 502? How comes the best score is 662 on the private leaderboard. I don't understand what happened to the 502 score.

31 Aug 2021, 05:54
Upvotes 0
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ff
University of Yaoundé I

He just did a crazy overfitting!